Applied Logic Engineering, Inc.

Technology and Management Solutions

Origami : A swing and a miss

Copyright 2006  Kelly Nehowig, Applied Logic Engineering, Inc.

All rights reserved

 

After much industry speculation, Microsoft formally unveiled the rumored Origami platform recently at the CeBit trade show in Germany.  After reviewing the concept in as much detail as was made available at this stage, I would compliment Microsoft on attempting to move the whole concept of mobile computing forward, but we are predicting that their hardware development partners who actually make the devices are destined for trouble.  Here’s why:

 

The Mobile Landscape

 

The mobile computing landscape continues to evolve.  In the year 2000, mobile computing devices were essentially limited to laptop computers and the emerging personal digital assistant (PDA) devices.  Laptops were big and heavy (relative to today) and PDAs had a limited degree of functionality – but these two devices formed the core of what most “road warriors” carried on their travels.  To stay in touch with the office, the ubiquitous cell phone provided the method to make voice calls and check voice mail.

 

Today, laptops are still the primary mobile computing device of choice. They certainly have improved in terms of size and weight, and the cost of these devices continues to fall.   PDAs seem to have reached their apex in 2004 and now more and more of the typical need for a PDA (scheduling, email, and contact info) has migrated to the “smart” cell phone, which can sync with PCs and maintain personal schedules, contact information, and allow for email access.  Today’s business user is typically armed with a laptop and a cell phone.

 

In addition to these portable computing platforms, tremendous innovation has occurred in the “consumer” side of portable electronics.  Apple has had unprecedented success with the Ipod in the digital multimedia consumer space.  The Ipod proves that a consumer electronic device that is the right device (size, weight, capability) at the right price point can create a new product category.  Apple continues to expand the reach of this device by providing video-capable devices, giving the user a pocket-sized device for not only listening to music and viewing digital photos, but also for viewing digital video content.

 

Where Does Origami Fit?

 

It seems that Microsoft is attempting to straddle the consumer electronic device category with a mobile computing device in Origami (Microsoft is quick to say that they do not design and manufacture the devices themselves, but the user will not necessarily make that distinction).  The devices that are being proposed typically have 7 inch screens and are less than 2 inches deep and around 2 lbs in weight, which puts them in at larger than a PDA, but smaller than a traditional Tablet PC.  Only a soft keyboard is provided (via the touch screen), although a traditional USB keyboard can be added externally.

 

Unlike the PDA but like the Ipod, Origami devices are equipped with hard drives to provide lots of storage capacity for multimedia applications.

 

From the software perspective, Microsoft is equipping Origami with tools that provide a full range of multimedia capability.  As a case in point, one of the applications that will be included with Origami is called “Program Launcher”, which allows the user quick access to view digital pictures, listen to music, or other multimedia functions.

 

It seems that Microsoft continues to evolve the concept of a portable, media-centric PC based on the limited success (or failure, you decide) of two other product platform categories – the Portable Media Center and the Tablet PC.

 

The Portable Media Center (PMC) was Microsoft’s attempt to encourage vendors to produce a true consumer multimedia device – one could load digital photos, music, and video to the device for portable viewing away from the PC.  The problems with the PMC were primarily twofold – one, it was not a true computer and therefore was limited to the software that was supplied by the device maker and two, its price point was too high (typically well over $500 dollars).  Size, battery life, and competition from other consumer devices (re:Apple) also ended up burying this product concept about a year ago.

 

The Tablet PC was introduced by Microsoft over two years ago.  Essentially, the Tablet PC is like a notebook PC without the keyboard.  In its place, Microsoft designed a touch screen interface that uses a stylus.  The Tablet PC has found some limited success in vertical markets (such as healthcare, insurance, etc.) but has never gained widespread acceptance with the general market.  While it is a full PC that runs an optimized version of Windows XP, the size of the device, the limitations of input methods without a keyboard, and the cost (typically over $1500) are restricting the acceptance of this platform.

 

Problems with the initial Origami devices

 

So now we have the Origami platform – essentially a “down-sized” version of the Tablet PC with new software additions to make enjoying multimedia easy for the average consumer.  This combination of features may prove to resonate with the consumer, but again, some of the problems that plagued the PMC & the full size Tablet PC continue to haunt Origami:

 

-         Size – the current crop of devices that will run Origami are simply too large.  Essentially, the vendors have chosen to simply scale down existing notebook PC thinking and have produced devices that are too thick, too heavy, and too cumbersome to be used in a true portable environment (think of the Ipod).

 

-         Battery life – initial reports indicate that Origami devices may run up to 3 hours on a single charge.  We believe that consumers will find this problematic and that the expectation will be that these devices will need to last 8-10 hours to truly meet customer demands.

 

-         Most importantly – price – Microsoft has publicly stated that their intention is to work with the hardware vendors to produce devices that will retail in the $600 - $1000 range.  Based on information we have seen, the initial devices will certainly be on the high end of this scale, with indications that many devices will come in with substantially higher price tags.  Our belief is that consumers will reject this as these devices get compared to notebook PCs at lower price points, with the consumer deciding that Origami does not provide the proper capability at the proper price point.

 

What Needs To Happen To Be Successful

 

What Microsoft needs to do is encourage their development partners to break the mold in the way that Apple did with their Ipod and in the way that Motorola did with their Razr cell phone.  Simply repackaging existing notebook/tablet technology will not create the necessary product that will drive this new market.

 

The size of the unit needs to be not much larger than the dimensions dictated by the touch screen itself.  In addition “thin is in” – the Ipod and the Razr have established the new standard for the overall thickness of the latest crop of consumer devices.  Origami needs to follow suit.

 

This breakthrough thinking needs to be delivered at a realistic price point.  Around $500 seems to fit the current landscape – more than a high-end Ipod but less than a moderate-priced laptop.  Any more than that takes Origami devices out of the “disposable” income range for the target market and causes overlap with the laptop market.

 

Conclusion

 

Origami is a great move forward in the mobile computing space – from the software perspective.  It is our opinion that while the operating system software will lead to great things, the current crop of devices that are being announced will have a tough time finding a foothold in the market with the general public and will be successful only with the early adaptor crowd.  Until the devices themselves are made smaller with battery life that lasts a reasonable amount of time, the market will be limited.  Most importantly, the device vendors need to hit the $500 retail price point to be successful.

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Kelly Nehowig is President of Applied Logic Engineering, Inc., a Minneapolis-based consulting company specializing in software development products and services.  A 26-year veteran of the software industry, he has worked with companies from startups to large corporate clients.  Kelly holds a MS degree in Software Engineering from the University of St. Thomas and a BS degree in Electronic Engineering from Minnesota State University – Mankato.  He can be reached at kellyn@appliedlogiceng.com.